In the history of the Republic, it’s only happened one time where the party that has held the White House for 8 years went on to hold it for more than one more term after that: The Virginia Dynasty (1800-1824).
Of course, we all know that George Washington was our first president, and although there were no true political parties as of yet, he was very much a federalist, and a firm believer that these 13 colonies were not merely an affiliation of states, but truly one people and one nation. He was president for 8 years, and stepped down warning of the corrupting influence of parties. John Adams then was elected in a squeaker of an election, and continued in the federalist tradition of Washington (though, of course, he was a lot less secure in himself, and perhaps a bit of a monarchist).
Adams term, though, gave rise to one of the first political parties, Jefferson’s Democratic-Republicans, the logistical forerunner of the Democratic Party, though ideologically, they were much more in line with today’s Tea Party. TJ was president for 8 years, and was succeeded by his Sec of State Madison. Madison won two terms and was succeeded by HIS Sec of State, Monroe (at this point, the State dept post was largely seen as the ‘next-in-line’ position, and was highly coveted). Monroe’s election was the last time the Dem-Rep party won an election as, during his tenure, the party system withered and gave rise to the “era of good feelings.”
So, this was the only time in our history that one party has controlled the presidency for more than 12 years. It’s also important to note that Monroe, and Madison to a degree, drifted from the pure republicanism of someone like John Randolph of Virginia to a more moderate stance on a number of issues.
2020 is a redistricting year. 12 years of Dem’s might grow tiresome to the electorate, and we may face a republican wave that will further strengthen their stranglehold on the House and state legislatures.
What does this mean for us and this election? I don’t know, but maybe a number of things.
* History says that, more than likely, whomever the Dem nominee is will only have one term in the White House if they win in Nov. However, the country is also in the midst of changing demographics which, we hope, will give Democrats an inherent advantage in any national election. This could upset any historical trends. However, you have to figure that at some point, if they keep losing, there will emerge a Republican who is sane, who accepts climate change, the ACA, and several other moderate social or economic positions, and may be able to figure out how to put together a winning coalition of republicans and blue dogs.
* Are Sanders or Clinton the ones who can break with the past? I don’t know. I think if he won, Sanders would only stay for a term owing mostly to his age and the demands/stress of the job, and pass the torch to a new generation, perhaps his would-be VP. Clinton, though, I think, has the potential to win two terms, but I think it would be be governing as a blue dog and not as a progressive.
* Even after 8 years, voters start to feel the itch to vote the new party in. If Sanders loses the GE, will it push the party more towards the DLC/triangulation flank? Conversely, if Hillary loses the GE, will the progressive left rise even more in the party??
* A few weeks ago, Walter Bragman posted an article at Salon that discussed the “strategic” choice of letting the Republicans win this time around. The gist is mostly the same as this diary post, and I’m not entirely sure I agree, but I’m also not entirely sure I totally disagree.
* Finally, maybe a miracle will happen, and maybe, just maybe we’ll have 16 or more years of Dem presidents. Maybe there will be a new era of good feelings as the far-right is further and further marginalized, and common sense progressive policies that we all know are quite popular with the public at large will be the governing philosophy for years to come in America.
Why am I posting this? Mostly to exhume the thoughts from my head, get them out on paper, and maybe generate some discussion (that *hopefully* won’t turn into a flame war) that can clarify my thoughts.