earlier today, they released some non-prez figures:
22% say they are more likely to pick romney b/c of ryan; 23% less. This is less than previous VP announcements w/biden 24% more/16% less and palin at 34%/25%.
They also put out a poll on congress. apparently, it's at an all-time low for the history of the survey w/12% approving and 82% dis. they also say that people view dems (42-40) better than repubs (36-45)
I saw bits of the presidential poll originally on Hardball, but the official numbers aren't being released until 630. I'm not sure if this is a NBC/Marist poll, but Nate Silver has them [nbc/marist] at a d+1.9 house effect, so keep that in mind.
the numbers: Obama up 48-44 in general election trial.
there are full demographic breakdowns available at first read, but i wanted to highlight what i saw on hardball (i can't even imagine im writing that sentence):
What’s more, Obama bests Romney by 35 points (58 percent to 23 percent) on the question of which candidate is more likeable, and by 22 points (52 percent to 30 percent) on caring about average people.In addition, a majority of voters (51 percent) view the former Massachusetts governor’s approach to issues as being “out of step” with most Americans’ thinking. By comparison, 54 percent say Obama’s positions are “in the mainstream.”
And by a 36 percent to 6 percent difference, voters say what they have seen, heard and read about Romney’s tax returns – he has refused to release returns prior to 2010 – has given them a more negative impression of the Republican candidate. Forty-one percent say it doesn’t make much of a difference.
Problematically for Romney, similar negative margins exist with swing voters like independents, suburban voters and Midwest residents.
i think it's clear that the O's decision to define romney in july and august is paying off, and his real challenge is to reset the campaign at the convention (after his VP-reset failed ~ apparently, he failed to blow on the cartridge enough ;) ) . now, if this were 2008 and his convention were second, i think there'd be a chance for a redefinition, but w/dem's rebuttal coming a few weeks later the next week [h/t to TexasDem n Jacoby Jonze], i'm not sure he'll be able to.